Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran on Saturday morning marked the start of a new and more dangerous phase in the two countries’ yearslong conflict, but it appeared, at least for now, to have stopped short of prompting an all-out war, analysts said.
The attack was the first time that Israel has publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran, after years of maintaining a strategic silence about its assassinations and acts of sabotage on Iranian soil. It was also a rare attack by a foreign air force in Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.
Although it was a significant moment, the attack did not immediately provoke an Iranian threat to retaliate, easing fears that two of the most powerful militaries in the Middle East were on the point of uncontrollable conflict.
“The years of shadow war have fully entered open conflict — albeit a managed conflict, for now,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based research group. “Tehran can swallow these strikes against militarily facilities, without retaliating in a way that invites further Israeli action,” she added.
After weeks of pressure from the United States to reduce the scope of its attack, Israel avoided striking sensitive nuclear enrichment sites and oil production facilities in retaliation for the large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel early this month.
On Saturday, Israel’s fighter jets focused instead on roughly 20 military installations, including air defense batteries, radar stations and missile production sites, according to Israeli officials.
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