Posted on: January 17, 2026, 10:07h.
Last updated on: January 17, 2026, 10:07h.
- Buffalo Bills slight betting underdogs in early game against Denver Broncos
- DT Ed Oliver returns to the lineup for the Bills
- Seattle Seahawks big betting favourites at home against banged up San Francisco 49ers
Four great NFL Divisional Round games on the docket for this weekend, starting today, in a season where great parity has made it challenging to make picks. That’s according to Ethan Useloff, Sports Trader for Fanatics Sportsbook. And that situation doesn’t get more real than the Buffalo Bills in Denver against the Broncos, today at 4:30 p.m. EST, the first divisional game out of the chute.
“I think this season in particular has been one that we’ve seen great parity within the NFL from week to week,” he said. “We have one of the Super Bowl favorites in the New England Patriots who lost Week 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders (20-13), who have the No. 1 pick (in this spring’s NFL draft), which is an incredible showing of this parity. It’s an illustration of the way the reverse draft order in the NFL works to essentially aid the teams who are poor, in becoming better. We don’t see as many teams spin in the pit of mediocrity as we do in other leagues.”
Super Parity
That’s just helped in the competitiveness in the league. You can point to rule changes, like overtime rules or kickoff rules. Some of it comes down to the increasing quality of the athletes over the past decade. The way teams play defence has had an impact too – you don’t see 5,000 yard passers anymore (the Rams’ Matthew Stafford topped the NFL this season with 4,707).
It’s made this season “super gripping” Useloff explained, and it’s also made it tougher to do his job as a trader well.
You might have a team that’s a favorite and they lose by double digits or something along those lines,” he said. “But overall, it makes the in-game betting experience and even the hype around it before the game starts, even more enthralling for the fan, and for me. That makes it so much more fun to do our job, because all the customers are so excited to bet. We have more promotions than ever.”
Fair Play Policy
At Fanatics, with their Fair Play policy, they will refund single-player prop bets when a player was injured in the first half and preserve parlays by voiding affected legs and recalculating odds. This past season Fanatics returned $17 million to customers through the refund program, and over 1 million bets were protected, including single-player props and parlay legs voided to keep bets alive.
That was in play during Wild Card Weekend last week when the 49ers’ TE George Kittle went down with a torn right Achilles in the second quarter of San Francisco’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, Today 4:30 p.m. EST
The big narrative for the Bills are all the injuries to their wide receivers – Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer, and Tyrell Shavers are all out. WR Brandin Cooks, with seven catches for 159 yards, will be in the spotlight more, then.
The Bills activated DT Ed Oliver off injured reserve, which is big news for them. In the three games he played this season, Oliver had three sacks. Oliver has been out since October when he suffered a left biceps tear. WR Curtis Samuel was also activated for today’s game.
But the Bills arguably have the MVP of the NFL in QB Josh Allen, albeit a banged up version. ESPN reports he took part in full practice Wednesday and Thursday, despite being in the concussion tent during last weekend’s Wild Card win in Jacksonville, as well as dealing with foot and finger issues.
“Allen’s ability is so much more unique than other players,” said Useloff. However, he added the Bills’ situation is the largest point differential you will see if their backup QB has to enter the game for any reason.
“That will be a touchdown swing if Mitch Trubisky has to enter the game,” he said. “Allen is that team, and if they were to lose him you can almost call that game over.
Imposing Broncos’ Defence
“That game, to me, in general, is one where you have the team that is really its quarterback, in a lot of ways, with the Buffalo Bills,” said Useloff. “They go as far as he’s able to go against the home team with the less experienced quarterback (Bo Nix), and for all intents and purposes, the better defence.
“So to me, it’s a classic matchup of how important the quarterback is. With the Bills also, the rush attack has been super dominant all season (RB James Cook led the NFL in rushing with 1,621 yards). But the Bills’ wide receivers, they’re absolutely decimated by injuries. They’re going to struggle with their vertical pass threat, and it’s going to only up the ante in terms of the importance of that run game, the importance of Josh Allen being a physical runner with that really imposing defence in Denver.”
Useloff said he expects the Bills to have a better running, game, despite facing a stout defensive front. Denver is second in yards allowed on the ground per game at 91.
“If the Bills are going to win this game, it’s going to come down to their ability to control time of possession, execute in the red zone, convert on third down,” he said.
Current Betting Lines for Today’s Games
At DraftKings: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-112), Broncos -1.5 (-108); Over 45.5 (-112), U 45.5 (-108).
At FanDuel: ML Bills +100, Broncos -118; Spread Bills +1.5 (-118), Broncos -1.5 (-104); Over 46.5 (-102), U 46.5 (-120).
And at BetMGM: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-105), Broncos -1.5 (-105); Over 46 (-110), U 46 (-110).
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Today 8:00 p.m. EST
We wrote a few days ago about Seahawks QB Sam Darnold and an oblique injury. He’s still listed as questionable, even though he told reporters earlier this week he was playing. These two teams just met in Week 18, with the Seahawks holding the 49ers to just 173 total yards, winning 13-3.
The Seahawks are big betting favourites at home. As Useloff said the closest spreads are in the AFC. He likes the Bills as underdogs, and also the 49ers.
“I know they’re decimated by injuries with Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall didn’t play last week (listed as questionable for today),” he said. “But I think seven points in the playoffs is really hard to cover when you have a Kyle Shanahan coached team, and Robert Saleh has been, in my opinion, maybe the best defensive coordinator in the game this year.
“It’s hard to imagine the Niners losing by a ton of points in that game. I know it’s in Seattle, and it’s going to be a night game, and they have all these injuries. But seven points is a lot in the playoffs, especially with the fight that team has and the championship pedigree.”
Current Betting Lines
At DraftKings: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -345; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45.5 (-102), U 45.5 (-118).
At FanDuel: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -340; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 44.5 (-120), U 44.5 (-102).
And at BetMGM: ML 49ers +265, Seahawks -333; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45 (-102), U 45 (-110).
Unpredictable Prop Betting
Bills’ wide receiving core. Going into a game with that many wide receivers hurt, they are going to have to rely more on TEs like Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, and get more creative with how they get their skills position guys involved, including more contributions from their running backs in the pass game. Big spotlight on Bills’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Among the most bet props (tickets) at BetMGM this morning is Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions Made (-145) and Cooks Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115). Same deal at theScore Bet – Shakir 30+ Total Receiving Yards is among their most bet non-TD player prop by total bets.
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