Posted on: February 6, 2026, 12:49h.
Last updated on: February 6, 2026, 12:49h.
- Analyst lifts MGM price target due in part to Las Vegas stability
- Stock has multiple 2026 catalysts, including BetMGM and Japan
- Capital return story should continue, says analyst
Capping a weird week in which inadvertently and then officially released fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) traded higher Friday helped in part by a sell-side analyst’s price target increase.
In midday trading, the casino stock was higher by more than 2%, putting it on pace for a 9.50% weekly gain after Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon reiterated an “outperform” rating on the Luxor operator while lifting his price target to $46 from $45. The new forecast implies upside of more than 24% from where the shares reside at this writing. The analyst pointed to encouraging earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR) trends on the Las Vegas Strip, among other factors.
4Q EBITDAR of $735m (-4% year-over-year) was +4% vs consensus, a nice improvement from 2Q/3Q, driven by project completion at MGM Grand, favorable convention mix, and above average hold,” observes Beynon. MGM is seeing Vegas stabilization and expects year-over-year growth in 2026 with comps getting easier after a tough 1Q. Notably, Vegas capital projects are now complete, group bookings are up mid-single digits, and citywide arena events remain balanced.”
MGM is the largest operator on the Strip where it controls 36,645 hotel rooms, far more than second-place Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), which has 23,150 rooms, according to Macquarie data.
Digital, Diversification Helping MGM
Although its aforementioned status as the biggest Strip operator is widely known, MGM offers a strong level of diversification that some investors may be glossing over as they focus on Las Vegas headlines.
The operator’s diversification equation includes 56% ownership of MGM China — a unit that delivered strong fourth-quarter results — and its 50% stake in BetMGM. That iGaming and online sports betting entity told investors this week that 2025 was its first profitable year, noting it’s on pace to generate $500 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2027.
“Diversification remains a key positive for MGM (58% Vegas, 25% Regional, 11% Macau, 6% Digital), as well as its higher end asset portfolio. We expect several catalysts in ’26 including BetMGM value,” adds Beynon.
How “BetMGM” value shakes out remains to be seen, but with that company thriving, speculation could increase that MGM will make a move to buy Entain out of the joint venture or potentially revisit a takeover of the UK-based partner.
MGM Balance Sheet Supportive of Capital Return Efforts
MGM has long been known as a share buyback powerhouse and that trend continued last year. In the fourth quarter, the gaming company repurchased 15 million shares, bringing its 2025 total to 37.5 million. Over the past five years, the Bellagio operator has reduced its shares outstanding tally by about 48%. Beynon believes MGM’s balance sheet is firm enough for the buybacks to continue.
“We regard its balance-sheet strength, supportive shareholders and goal to be a global entertainment leader as key positives,” concludes the analyst.
Source link
