We’re onto Week 7 of the NFL season and Sunday brings another slate loaded with value in the player prop markets.
I went 3-0 on my picks in this column last week to get me to 13-2 for the season. Overall, I’m 50-36 on player props this year for +17.92 units of profit.
All of my picks are tracked in the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.
Best bets: Week 7 NFL player props
Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards (-120, DraftKings)
Texans vs. Packers, 1 p.m. ET
This line opened at 56.5, an incredibly soft number, but I still see value at its current mark.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik wants to operate a run-heavy, early down offense, and Houston made Mixon a prized offseason addition to become a workhorse. We saw that role in Week 1, when the running back finished with a whopping 30 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown.
After an injury in Week 2 kept him on the sidelines, Mixon made his return last week. He only had 13 carries as he was working his way back to full health in a game that quickly became a blowout.
I expect his volume to ramp up this week against the Packers. Houston uses him where he’s best — on inside zone runs from under center. The Bengals rarely used him in that role, as their offense operated mainly from shotgun formation.
The Packers are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 21st in running back line yards allowed and 27th in defensive stuff rate, per FTN Fantasy. According to Fantasy Points Data, they also allow 4.58 yards per carry to zone runs, the ninth-most in the NFL.
I believe 15 attempts is the floor for Mixon in what should be a tightly contested game, and he’s cleared 62.5 rushing yards in 76% of his career games with 15-plus attempts, including an 11-game streak to the over.
Kenneth Walker over 65.5 rushing yards (-120, BetMGM)
Seahawks vs. Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Walker is coming off two quiet games on the ground, but this looks like a tremendous bounce-back spot. The Seahawks running back has been excellent this season, leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt. That sets him up for success against the Falcons, who rank 24th in tackling, per Pro Football Focus.
The Falcons also rank 28th in stuff rate and 29th in rushing success rate allowed, so Walker should have no problem churning out yardage in this game. Atlanta has allowed its opponent’s starting running back to go over this yardage line in every game this season.
Walker should benefit from Seattle’s mini-bye after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. He was dealing with an oblique injury that caused him to miss two games earlier this year, but he should be fully healthy and ready to take on a monster workload.
The Seahawks lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation. Still, their coaching staff has repeatedly emphasized getting the rushing attack going, and I expect them to feed Walker in this game against a vulnerable Atlanta run defense.
Diontae Johnson over 68.5 receiving yards (-120, Caesars)
Panthers vs. Commanders, 4:05 p.m. ET
This line jumped from what we bet for Johnson last week, but I’m still backing him in a perfect spot for production.
According to Fantasy Points Data, since Andy Dalton took over as the starting quarterback, Johnson has ranked third in the NFL with a monstrous 39.6% first-read target share.
I’ve repeatedly targeted the Commanders’ defense for wide receiver props. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA against WR1s, according to FTN Fantasy.
They also run man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, and Johnson has cooked against man coverage with 2.5 yards per route run, which ranks ninth out of 37 qualified receivers.
The Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs in a game with a 51.5-point over/under, making this the perfect game environment for passing production from the Carolina offense. Expect Johnson to have another massive game on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Lions vs. Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
We’re getting an awesome buy-low on St. Brown this week after two quiet games in which the Lions were able to fully rely on their run game. The Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL by DVOA, so we should expect Detroit to operate much more of a balanced offense on Sunday.
The Vikings blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL and run two high safeties at the highest clip to prevent giving up the big play. That gives St. Brown plenty of room to operate over the middle of the field, and he’s averaging an absurd 2.56 yards per route run against two-high defenses this season.
Minnesota has allowed Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Jayden Reed and Deebo Samuel to all finish with 90-plus receiving yards this season, and St. Brown should be the next in line.
Betting on the NFL?
He’s cleared this number in 14 of his last 20 games, and indoors on a fast track with a 50-point over/under, expect massive production from the Lions receiver.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_.)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
Source link
