Posted on: February 10, 2026, 12:11h.
Last updated on: February 10, 2026, 12:11h.
- Kalshi notched north of $1 billion in volume on Super Bowl Sunday
- The company’s Super Bowl week volume reached $2.8 billion
- Bettors leaned into non-sports contracts, including $100 million on Bad Bunny’s first song during the halftime show
Super Bowl Sunday was indeed super for Kalshi as volume on the prediction markets platform topped $1 billion, marking a staggering 2,700% year-over-year increase.
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour mentioned the $1 billion figure in a CNBC interview earlier today, though another estimate puts the company’s Sunday turnover at $871 million. Even if the lower figure is accurate, it’d represent a 60% increase over Kalshi’s previous highest volume day. While the game itself is the primary source of allure for bettors and traders, data confirm Kalshi clients leaned into non-sports contracts tied to the Super Bowl in a big way.
While Kalshi users tend to bet more on money line bets vs. props or parlays, Kalshi users also favor the non-sports bets around sports,” observes Needham analyst Bernie McTernan. “Data shows that of the top seven Kalshi markets on the Super Bowl, four of seven were not involved with the game. These four include First Halftime Song, Ads during the game, Halftime Performers, and Super Bowl Guests.”
Mansour confirmed as much, telling CNBC Kalshi clients drove more than $100 million in volume on contracts involving Bad Bunny’s first song for the halftime show and more than $45 million on derivatives based on artists that would perform with the pop star.
Kalshi Pricing Improved During Super Bowl Week
The 2025 NFL season was a major contributor behind increased turnover on prediction markets, but a familiar refrain was that those exchanges were offering inferior pricing relative to traditional sportsbooks, potentially giving bettors little reason to abandon sportsbooks in favor of prediction markets.
Data indicate Kalshi improved on that front during Super Bowl Week with the company making progress on sides and totals as well as in the coveted parlay arena — one long dominated by sportsbooks and one that industry relies on for Super Bowl revenue.
“Overall, Kalshi’s pre-game odds for game outcome and over/under were better for the vast majority of the week, with an average vig of 4.35% when adding in the transaction fee, on average, 3% better than DraftKings and FanDuel, on average,” said Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender in a note to clients. “We tracked combos (parlays) on Kalshi by taking the average odds and implied vig for 1) the over, and 2) the favorite (Seattle). The implied vig for Kalshi was 23.7%, 4% better than pricing for DraftKings and FanDuel, without the transaction fee.”
The analyst adds that Kalshi’s pre-game volume on the winner of the Super Bowl was $361 million, but that figured jumped to $499 million by the final whistle, indicating bettors were moving in and out of positions as the game played out — something they can’t do with standard sportsbooks.
More Signs Super Bowl Benefited Prediction Markets
Other signs point to Super Bowl victories for prediction market operators. For example, PrizePicks and Underdog were two of the four most downloaded sports gaming apps during the game. The former has a prediction markets partnership with Kalshi while the latter is teaming up with Crypto.com on event contracts.
There was more evidence of pricing wins for prediction market operators. Bank of America notes that the two most profitable venues to have placed money line bets on the Seattle Seahawks were Polymarket and Novig, implying those exchanges offered bettors higher rewards than a standard sportsbook.
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