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Here’s Who Leads In The Key 2024 Election Battlegrounds

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls out Thursday that show the contest in Georgia is even, while Trump’s narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin North Carolina and Arizona are within the margins of error.

Key Facts

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in a Marist poll released Thursday (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll out Wednesday (margin of error 3) and 47%-43% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday (margin of error 3.1), while a Washington Post-Schar poll released Monday (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump is up 50%-48% in the Marist poll—within the 3.6-point margin of error—and he’s up 50% to 48% in an Emerson College poll released Thursday (also within the 3.1-point margin of error), while Bloomberg’s poll found him leading 49.6%-48.5% (margin of error 4) and the Washington Post-Schar survey showed him ahead 50%-47% (margin of error 3.9). FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 1.2-point advantage.

Arizona: Trump leads 50%-49% in the Marist poll (margin of error 3.7), and Trump is ahead by three points—49%-46%—in the Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), but Bloomberg reports an effectively tied 49.1%-48.8% Harris lead, within the three-point margin of error. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: The state is almost as close as it can get, as Trump is up 49% to 48% in the Emerson survey (margin of error 3.4), 48.3%-48% in Bloomberg’s poll (margin of error 4) and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Wednesday Quinnipiac poll (margin of error 2.9), while Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6). Harris is up 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania: Trump leads 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll (margin of error 3.4), while Bloomberg found Harris up 50%-48.2% (margin of error 3), and she had a 49%-47% advantage in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6). Still, Trump leads Harris by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris’ 49.6%-46.5% edge marks the largest lead of any state polled by Bloomberg, but it’s still within the four-point margin of error—and it’s similar to Harris’ 49%-46% lead in Quinnipiac’s polling (margin of error 2.9) after trailing Trump 50%-47% earlier this month. Harris is up by 0.6 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Nevada: Harris is up 48.8%-48.3%, according to Bloomberg (margin of error 5), but Trump is ahead 47%-46% in an AARP poll released Tuesday (margin of error 4), and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.8), while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points, outside of the four-point margin of error. Harris leads by 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Big Number

0.2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 1.7 points.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)


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